Saturday, May 24, 2014

Lewisham Council results 2014

I was going to write a long and detailed post analysing all the stats on this, but Lewisham Council have made it easy for me by failing to publish detailed ward breakdowns of results so far, so here's a quick summary.

As predicted, Steve Bullock won the mayoral election and I'm guessing that as he got over 50% on first preference votes, we'll never get to know how huge his vote would have been including second preferences. Interestingly, the Conservative candidate came second, with Duwayne Brooks third and Mike Keogh of the Greens fourth. Brooks appeared to have resigned from the LibDems altogether once this result came in, pre-empting his defeat in Downham ward:


Sir Steve tweets very occasionally as @mayorbullock, if you're into that sort of thing.

As for the ward elections, Labour took 53 of the 54 seats, smashing my prediction of 50, and in fact I got the opposition wrong, with a single Green retaining a seat in Brockley to make up the 54. Darren Johnson and his team put in a huge amount of effort to achieve that, and Darren was suitably delighted:






I've made a twitter list of the 42 of the 54 councillors who are on twitter and if the council ever get round to publishing the detail, I might do some kind of statsy analysis of the results later.

Mike Harris, outgoing Labour councillor for Lewisham Central ward, has some interesting thoughts on what the one party state means for Lewisham politics, and puts out a challenge to local bloggers to form some kind of unofficial opposition. A challenge, and a discussion for another post.

Alternative SE4 has a nice visual image of the council chamber, making a refreshing change from exploding 3D pie charts and stacked 3D bar charts we've seen elsewhere (yes, Bexley Council and EastLondonLines, I'm looking at you...)


To be completely fair to ELL though, they did a great job live blogging election results across their patch, including Lewisham, and even produced a new version of their dodgy chart, just for me...


They did something the rest of the local media couldn't manage, so well done to them.

Thursday, May 22, 2014

Lewisham 2014 - today's the day!



After months of campaigning, leaflets and door knocking, the big day is here! What can we expect when the results are counted in Lewisham's elections tomorrow?

Bob from Brockley has some great analysis covering a few of Lewisham's wards, what of the others? (You can see a list of candidates for all the wards here)

Well, as I call it Bellingham, Catford South, Perry Vale, Rushey Green, and Sydenham all already have 3 Labour councillors and I can't see any other party challenging them.

In Blackheath, Kevin Bonavia and Amanda de Ryk will be hoping to hold onto their seats for Labour and perhaps take a third. I'm not sure if they'll manage it, although the Lewisham LibDems seem to have disappeared altogether, their twitter account hasn't posted since March, so perhaps the LibDems have given up.

Grove Park will be an interesting ward, with two Tory councillors voted in at the last election, that now reducing to one with the defection of David Britton to Labour. I stuck my neck out in March and said that the remaining Conservative would lose her seat, and it's always possible that UKIP will split the Tory vote to allow that to happen. I'll stand by my prediction, just to make things interesting!

I think Labour will take all three seats in Lee Green, with the LibDem vote collapsing, and I think they'll take the remaining seat in Whitefoot, an interesting little ward at the very south of Catford and north of Downham.

People Before Profit's candidate in Lewisham Central has been criticised for tacking "Save Lewisham Hospital" onto his party name, and quite rightly so. Let's hope voters aren't confused. I predict all three seats will be Labour here.

Well, I think that just about covers it, let the voting begin and let's hope for Lewisham's sake that we still have someone to scrutinise Labour on the council after the count is done tomorrow.

(Thanks to @NikkiCoates for the inspiration for today's theme tune.) 









Sunday, May 18, 2014

Space for Cycling Big Ride 2014




Yesterday I joined in with the Space for Cycling Big Ride 2014, organised by the London Cycling Campaign, along with thousands of other Londoners. Why? Well, apart from the chance to trundle, stop start, through central London without being hampered by cars, I wanted to continue to send the message to our politicians that they need to do more to make London's streets more inviting to cycle.

I joined in with the Greenwich cyclists feeder ride, starting at Cutty Sark Gardens, a place incidentally where cycling isn't allowed, in typical bonkers Greenwich council style. I could have joined the Lewisham cyclists ride, which went along the Waterlink Way, but I fancied a change. It has to be said though that certain parts of the ride in made it abundantly clear why we needed to do the ride in the first place - the conditions favour motor traffic pretty much everywhere at the moment.

We passed through Southwark Park on our way in, which was lovely, and Norway day celebrations were in full swing. I didn't manage to get a picture of them sadly though.

We eventually arrived at Speakers Corner around 11ish and then headed down Park Lane to the ride start. We were quite near the front, which was good. The last one of these I went on I was near the back and it was even more stop start.


Just time for a bit of checking twitter before we set off on the ride...




Bumping into the Tweed Run which was on at the same time was interesting, something of a clash of cultures, and apparently it costs £40 to join in. {Monday morning update: I'm told via twitter that tweed run tickets were £21, and also that Tweed Run has designated LCC as one of its supported charities this year, so that's all good.} Our ride was free thanks to the LCC, sponsors and donations.

We eventually arrived on the Embankment and I spotted this rather cleverly doctored Boris Bike:

We stopped by Blackfriars Bridge to listen to the speakers, ironically (or perhaps not) as this bit of road is pretty horrendous for bikes. We heard speeches from Labour and Lib Dem Assembly members Val Shawcross and Caroline Pidgeon, had a hastily thrown together note from a Tory member (none of them came along....) read out to us and also heard from Natalie Bennett, leader of the Greens, who was the most convincing of the three, perhaps not surprisingly. We then heard Andrew Gilligan who reeled off a whole load of things that are going to be starting in the autumn, pleaded for us to give him time to get things right (18 months and counting so far...) and blathered on about the fact that there are 33 boroughs involved in all this making it so much more difficult. The LCC has tried to address this with its campaign around ward asks - which are supposed to be simple tangible things councils can do in each ward in London (all 600+ of them). To be honest, I've heard it all before from Gilligan, and won't clap and cheer him until I've seen some action. I remain to be convinced - and here's my unconvinced face to prove it:


Deciding to eschew the guided ride back to Greenwich (or Lewisham), we headed back with a ride led by me, on quieter streets (mostly) round the back of the Elephant, through Burgess Park, Surrey Canal Walk, and Peckham Rye, with a sneaky stop off at the Ivy House for a quick drink to quench our thirst. It was a great day, thoroughly enjoyable, lets just hope it leads to some action before many more cyclists are needlessly killed and seriously injured. I want J&C to be able to cycle more safely on London's streets than I can at the moment! (And the most convincing and best speech of the day came from a mum who is one of LCC's trustees and simply wants her son to be able to cycle safely to school.)

Here's the route in full (if the strava widget works):



Tuesday, May 06, 2014

Pollution in Lewisham, Hither Green and Catford

Since last summer I've been heavily involved with a group campaigning to stop the proposed Silvertown tunnel (or third Blackwall tunnel as it is in reality) being built. I got involved to help with a citizen science study on air pollution in the Greenwich area, aimed at highlighting the appalling levels of pollution that already exist around the area Boris proposes to wreck even further. The results of that study were shocking, and convinced me that I needed to do more to help make sure that these plans never come to fruition.

After the results of that study and public meeting highlighting the results to a big audience, we decided that we needed to go further and investigate pollution in a wider area beyond Greenwich, but one that would also be affected by increased traffic if the new tunnel were built. It's well known to transport planners that new roads generate demand for journeys that would not otherwise have been made. So we decided to expand out into Bexley, Catford, Hither Green and Lewisham. We also joined forces with Don't Dump on Deptford's Heart, a group campaigning against a Thames Tunnel worksite on Deptford Church Street's green. They wanted to look at pollution in Deptford, so the two were a perfect match really.

A disclaimer before I start properly here. I am a driver. I own a car. I even use it to drive through the Blackwall tunnel on fairly regular occasions. I freely admit to having sat in traffic jams on the southern and northern approaches wishing that the third bore of the tunnel had been built as planned years ago. But what I now know is that wish was completely wrong-headed. I didn't understand how new roads generate new traffic until I had it explained to me - and demonstrated to me with the figures that showed what happened when the second bore of the Blackwall tunnel was built. Namely that traffic doubled at peak times within a year (and to be honest that would have happened sooner but the original tunnel closed for refurbishment for a while after the new one was opened). So if the Silvertown tunnel is built, traffic is likely to double again, and all that means is sitting on congested approach roads for longer, car engine idling, spewing out toxic fumes, which you will be breathing in.

Convinced that air pollution was likely to already be a big problem in congested Catford and Lewisham, I volunteered to help put up diffusion tubes to monitor the air pollution from nitrogen dioxide in the vicinity over a period of a month in January and early February 2014. I roped Sally into helping me out (thank you!), and to put them up we were joined by fellow citizen scientist, Jenny.


The picture shows the tube we put up at the end of Whitefoot Lane. We had a good chat with a local mum who wondered what on earth we were doing while we were putting this up, and who was keen to know more about the effects of pollution on children's developing lungs (another reason by the way that I decided I needed to get involved in this, having two children aged 5 and 7 myself).

We also put up tubes in central Catford:


Downham:



Hither Green:


Lewisham:

Lee Green:

Grove Park:


and on the South Circular, at the junction of Verdant Lane, Hither Green Lane and Brownhill Road:

The results are absolutely horrifying. Bear in mind that this January just gone was one of the wettest on record, which tends to lower nitrogen dioxide pollution levels, the map below shows pollution levels in the centre of Lewisham, just outside a well-known chicken-selling emporium of 109 microgrammes per cubic metre. The EU legal annual limit is 40 microgrammes per cubic metre, so this is over 2.5 times the EU limit! Right where people are shopping, eating out, and live.


In the centre of Catford, pollution levels are twice the EU limit, and at the other end of Brownhill Road, right by people's houses, levels are 1.5 times the EU limit. In Grove Park, by the station, Whitefoot Lane and in Downham, pollution levels exceed the EU limit.

On Hither Green Lane pollution levels reached 52 microgrammes per cubic metre, despite the stretch of road we put the diffusion tube up on being closed for almost two of the four weeks the tube was up!

The only places that recorded levels below the EU limit, of the tubes Sally, Jenny and I put up, were the other side of Grove Park station, by Marvels Lane health centre, where the level was 33 microgrammes per cubic metre, a level still considered harmful to health, and Fernbrook Road on the other side of Hither Green station from Hither Green Lane, which sees next to no traffic apart from the 273 bus and could perhaps be considered a control for the level of pollution we might expect in our area in the absence of car traffic.

I was shocked to see these results. My children are growing up in an area that is dangerously polluted, and I am not going to sit by and do nothing as Boris Johnson, TfL and Greenwich Council strive to make it worse! I will keep on campaigning until the idea of building more roads in South East London is so ridiculous it won't be allowed to happen.

If you can help at all with the No to Silvertown Tunnel campaign, then do get in touch, either through the campaign's website, or through my blog in the comments below.

Others have written their own accounts of the work we did in January and February:

Crosswhatfields?
Deptford Dame
853
Francis Sedgemore
No to Silvertown Tunnel

Thank you to Andrew Wood of Network for Clean Air for providing advice and support to carry out the study, the directors of The Scale Factory for financial support to enable the work in Catford and surrounds to be done, and of course all the other volunteers who helped (listed on the No to Silvertown Tunnel website)! 


Lewisham/SE London bloggers post-election drinks

Mr Lawrence wine bar and wine/beer shop, Brockley, London SE4

After election fever has died down on 23rd May, come and join me and @bobfrombrockley for drinks at the London Beer Dispensary, which is due to open in the current Mr Lawrence's Wine Bar in Crofton Park this month.

Watch this space for updates in case it isn't quite open by then....

From 8pm, all local bloggers and twitter types welcome. Hope to see you there!

Thursday, March 13, 2014

How likely is it Lewisham council will go 'all Labour' in May?

Since the 2006 council elections the make-up of Lewisham council has changed quite significantly, despite being led throughout this time by Labour mayor Sir Steve Bullock.

After the 2006 elections, the 54-strong council looked like this:

Labour           26
Liberal Democrat 17
Green             6
Conservative      3
Socialist         2

A mix of parties and some strong opposition to Labour as the largest (but not the majority) group on the council.

Fast forward to 2010:

Labour           39
Liberal Democrat 12
Conservative      2
Green             1

A clear majority for Labour, but at least with an opposition party with a reasonable number of councillors. Since then 1 Conservative and 1 LibDem have defected to Labour and one LibDem stood down to be replaced with a Labour councillor in a by-election. This leaves the current council looking like this:

Labour           41
Liberal Democrat 10
Conservative      1
Green             1

The observant among you will notice this adds up to 53 not 54. This is because there are currently only 2 councillors in Evelyn ward following the death of Councillor Sam Owalabi-Oluyole in January. A by-election wasn't held to fill this position for obvious reasons.

Already Labour have 41 councillors of the 54 possible positions available - how likely is it that the whole council will turn red in May? I thought I'd have a go at working this out using some of the 2010 and 2006 ward voting stats and a bit of a magic cauldron. Why go back to 2006? Well, the 2010 elections coincided with a general election so the turnout was up (60% compared with 33% in 2006), and these votes tend to go towards larger parties where people are also voting on national issues. I think we can assume we'll be heading back towards a turnout of about a third this year.

My first assumption is that Labour will retain all 41 existing council seats, and will add the missing seat in Evelyn, giving them 42 seats to start with.

Where are the current opposition party seats?

The Green party councillor, Darren Johnson, is stepping down from Brockley after 12 years. This leaves this position wide open for Labour who took two of the Green party's three seats from them in 2010. I think we can assume that without Darren's name, the Greens won't hold onto the third in 2014.

The Conservative councillor, Chris Allison, is in Grove Park, where she was originally accompanied by David Britton. He's since gone to Labour - how likely is it Chris will lose her space on the council come May? Well, in 2006 the Tories had all 3 seats in Grove Park and in 2010 the winning Labour candidate, Suzannah Clarke, polled more votes than Cllr Allison. So... I am going to speculate that this seat will fall to Labour as part of a national swing away from the Tories. This would wipe out the Tories in Lewisham altogether.

What of the 10 existing Liberal Democrat councillors? Where are they located? All 3 Downham councillors are currently LibDems. Two of three councillors in both Forest Hill and Lee Green are currently LibDems and there are lone LibDems in Blackheath, Crofton Park and Whitefoot.

In Downham, the Labour candidates in 2010 were the next three highest polling candidates after the LibDems, with the top Labour candidate scoring only 23 fewer votes than the lowest polling LibDem, Jenni Clutten. I believe she is stepping down, so that may well open up at least one opportunity. I'm not sure (though perhaps I should know) if Duwayne Brooks plans to stand again, as he is standing for mayor (that in itself doesn't stop him standing for council election too). His name may get him elected again. Julia Fletcher has her eyes on Heidi Alexander's seat in Parliament, though I don't think Heidi will be having too many sleepless nights about that.

Lee Green has been a bit of a flip-floppy ward in recent times, with numerous by-elections and swings to and from the LibDems to Labour and back again. I used to live there, and actually the LibDem councillors were great at that time. They've mostly moved on since and at the last election the results were pretty finely balanced, so I think these two seats will fall to Labour.

Forest Hill isn't a ward I know an awful lot about, despite enjoying a fair few evenings in the Hob performing with my choir. At least one the the current LibDem councillors (Philip Peake) is stepping down. The highest polling candidate in 2010 was Alex Feakes, who seems to be a busy chap if his blog is anything to go by. Perhaps he will hang on if he decides to stand.

What of the wards with only one LibDem councillor? Well, Whitefoot has already rejected the LibDems in one by-election so I'm going to stick my neck out and suggest the other will go this time. Crofton Park and Blackheath seem pretty close run places between Labour and LibDem so these are hard to call. Of course, Amanda De Ryk saw the writing on the wall in June last year and jumped to Labour before she was pushed out altogether...

So, it's not an exact science but I reckon that the make-up of the council after the May 2014 elections will be:

Labour           50
Liberal Democrat  4

What do you think? Have I been too generous to the LibDems? Unfairly dismissed the Greens and the Tories? Think that People Before Profit will storm to victory across the borough? Can you do better? Let me know what you think and we can see who's right come May 22nd!

Trying to decide how to vote? You might be interested in this report on councillors' absenteeism from Alternative SE4.


(p.s. I'm not bothering to speculate on who will be mayor, I think that's pretty obvious, despite this gem from Duwayne Brooks on Tuesday:




Friday, February 28, 2014

Lewisham (and beyond) Bloggers Meet-up 14 March 2014

Mr Lawrence

We've not had one of these for a long time, but a few of us still blog occasionally (!) and were talking about having another meet to catch up and chat. We also thought it might be nice to expand slightly beyond the blue borough, as we have done before.

So...

The next Lewisham and SE London Bloggers Meet-up details are:

7:30pm onwards
Friday 14 March
Mr Lawrence's Wine Bar, 391 Brockley Rd, London SE4 2PH

Hope to see you there and if you can't make it, hopefully there will be another one soon!